Obama: Tougher times for India?

23 Jan 2009,

C Mahapatra
Professor, American Studies, JNU
India likely to be off his foreign policy radar

Challenging days are ahead in Indo-US relations. First, the new Obama administration has so many difficult issues in its domestic and foreign policy plate that President Obama would have little time or interest to think about US-Indian relations at least during the first hundred days in office and may be beyond.

Secondly, India’s role in Obama’s efforts to tackle thorny issues, such as recession in his country, expected uncertainties in Iraq during and after troops withdrawal, enhanced vigour and newer strategy to hunt down Afghan militants and their patrons and handling the Palestinian problem is considered inconsequential in Washington’s policy making circles.

Thirdly, India rarely gives policy migraine to Washington. India is a recognised democracy with a creditable human rights record. It is not a state sponsor of terrorism. It is an acknowledged nuclear power with high reputation on export control. Indian scientists have never been accused of running international black market in dangerous weapons or equipment. India requires peace around its borders to keep its economy growing and so behaves with utmost restraint in the face of intolerable provocations, such as Mumbai terrorist attacks.

A country like India that neither helps much in tackling problems nor poses threats is bound to be off Obama’s foreign policy radar screen. There will be less White House attention to relations with India and even on routine matters, India may face tougher times in dealing with the Obama administration.

Obama’s predecessor ran a unipolar world with unilateralist tendencies. It sought to enhance India’s role in global affairs to counterbalance China. Obama’s priority will be stopping the fast erosion of US power and seek Chinese cooperation to fight recession.

While the Afghan situation makes Pakistan a persistent ally and economic crisis will make China a partner, Obama’s commitment to revive the CTBT may open old wounds in US-Indian relations. Pakistan will insist on Obama’s activism on Kashmir and recession will compel Obama to discourage outsourcing and the outcome would be disappointing to many Indians. The so-called ‘natural partners’ is likely to go through a rough patch during the first half of the Obama administration.